title: "Vancouver Had Zero Presale Launches in Multiple Months of 2025. Here's Why That Creates a Supply Crisis in 2027–2028 | Matt Brevner PREC" slug: "vancouver-presale-launches-zero-2025-supply-shortage-2027-2028" description: "Vancouver presale condo launches effectively hit zero across multiple months in 2025 — the lowest in 25 years. CMHC confirms starts will fall further through 2028. For buyers watching from the sidelines, this silence is the loudest signal in the market." date: "2026-03-21" author: "Matt Brevner" category: "Vancouver Presale"

Vancouver Had Zero Presale Launches in Multiple Months of 2025. Here's Why That Creates a Supply Crisis in 2027–2028.

There's a data point circulating that Vancouver real estate commentators keep glazing over: during multiple months of 2025, the city recorded zero new presale condo project launches. Not slow. Not soft. Zero.

That's the lowest level in at least 25 years of tracked data, and it's happening at the same time that CMHC is forecasting a national decline in housing starts from 2026 through 2028.

If you're a presale buyer sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop further or for "certainty" to return — this data is aimed directly at you.

Quick Answer

Vancouver presale launches hit zero in multiple months of 2025 — a 25-year low. Because presale completions arrive 24–36 months after a launch, this means ownership-product supply in 2027 and 2028 is already locked in at historically low levels. Buyers entering presale today are moving ahead of that squeeze; buyers who wait will compete for a shrinking pool of available units at a time when demand is expected to recover.

Key Facts

• Vancouver presale condo project launches hit zero in multiple months of 2025 — lowest in 25 years of tracked data

• CMHC forecasts housing starts will decline nationally from 2026 to 2028, with the condo pipeline contracting fastest

• February 2026 housing starts were up 4.5% from January (BC was a top contributor), but this reflects completions of projects launched in 2022–2023, not new launches

• The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026 — the third consecutive pause — keeping borrowing costs stable but offering no catalyst for developer relaunches

• Presale projects require 60–70% presale thresholds before construction financing unlocks; in a slow market, many launches are delayed indefinitely or cancelled

• CMHC's Spring 2026 Supply Report notes that small buildings (3–5 units) now outnumber towers in new starts — confirming the tower pipeline is structurally contracting

Why Zero Launches Today Means Zero Supply in Two Years

The Vancouver presale model works on a delay. A developer launches a project, spends 12–24 months collecting presale deposits to hit financing thresholds, breaks ground, and completes 24–36 months later. The typical timeline from first launch to buyer possession is three to four years.

This means what you see on the market today — completions, assignments, developer incentive programs — reflects launches from 2021 to 2023. The 2024 and 2025 launch collapse hasn't hit the market yet. It will arrive in 2027 and 2028 as a hard supply wall.

When a year has zero new launches, there are no projects building toward completion. There's nothing in the pipeline. The resale market will not absorb the pressure because resale inventory is itself constrained — sellers don't want to transact in a slow market either.

This is how supply crunches form. Not suddenly, but predictably, in the gap between a quiet launch market and the eventual return of demand.

What's Causing Developers to Pull Back

The pullback in presale launches isn't mysterious — it's the arithmetic of development economics breaking down.

Construction costs are still elevated. Tariffs on US steel and lumber, trade war uncertainty between Canada and the United States, and ongoing skilled labour shortages have kept hard costs well above 2022 levels. For a condo tower to pencil financially, developers need to sell at prices that today's cautious buyers often won't accept.

Presale demand softened sharply. Investor sentiment — which drives a significant portion of condo presale purchases in Vancouver — cratered through 2024 and 2025. Buyers who purchased in 2020–2022 were completing at values that sometimes fell short of their purchase price, and with rental income down year-over-year across the Lower Mainland, the investment thesis felt less compelling.

Financing thresholds are hard to hit in a slow market. Lenders typically require 60–70% of units sold in presale before advancing construction financing. In a market where buyers are hesitant, developers can't hit those thresholds. They either delay the launch indefinitely or mothball the project. Many are choosing the latter.

The Bank of Canada's hold at 2.25% — now three consecutive pauses — hasn't provided the catalyst developers need. Fixed mortgage rates have actually crept up slightly as bond yields respond to government spending and trade war uncertainty, making it harder to project forward sales prices that will satisfy construction lenders.

The Inventory You See Is a Lagging Indicator

Here's what confuses buyers: they see listings. They see developer incentive programs. They see units sitting unsold at completion. It looks like a supply-rich environment.

It is — but for 2022 and 2023 launches.

The REW February 2026 data showed newer-home resale inventory tightening 9% year-over-year in Metro Vancouver. Developers are running down their completion inventory through incentive programs (free parking, GST rebates, flexible deposits, extended completion dates). When those completions clear the market — which they will — there's very little behind them.

CMHC's Spring 2026 Supply Report confirmed that for the first time on record, small buildings (3–5 units) now outnumber large towers (100+ units) in new construction starts. That's not evidence of a healthy supply pipeline — it's evidence that the high-density, ownership-product pipeline is emptying out while missing middle infill fills the gap. Those multiplex units don't come to market as presales. They're often rented or sold as individual lots. They don't replace the condo tower pipeline for ownership buyers.

What This Means for a Buyer Making a Decision Today

If you're considering a presale purchase in Metro Vancouver this spring, the launch drought changes your calculus in two specific ways:

1. Today's inventory is the best you'll see for several years.

The developer incentive programs running now — reduced deposits, free assignments, GST inclusions, price holdbacks — are a direct response to the slow market. Developers are working down completion inventory and trying to hit presale thresholds on the few projects that are launching. This competitive dynamic benefits buyers. Once inventory clears and demand recovers, those incentives evaporate.

2. You're locking in ahead of a known supply constraint.

A presale purchase today with a 24–36 month completion timeline is a completion in 2028 or 2029. CMHC is projecting that 2027 and 2028 will see historically weak new completions — because those launches aren't happening now. You're not buying into uncertainty. You're buying into a known trajectory.

The buyers who will struggle in 2028 are those who waited until supply recovered before committing. At that point, there's nothing to recover into — the launches of 2024 and 2025 simply don't exist.

The Counterargument — And Why It Doesn't Hold

The bear case on buying presale now goes like this: prices could fall further, so wait for the bottom.

It's a reasonable instinct. But it misunderstands how presale pricing works. Developers don't drop presale prices the way resale sellers do. They pause launches, offer incentives on top of holding prices, or mothball projects. When they do relaunch — after the market stabilizes and demand returns — they launch at costs that reflect three more years of construction inflation. The "lower price" buyers are waiting for often doesn't arrive in presale; what arrives instead is fewer projects at higher prices.

For buyers with a 3–5 year horizon, today's presale entry points — combined with the supply data pointing to a 2027–2028 scarcity — represent the same kind of window that closed buyers out of the 2017 and 2021 markets.

FAQ

Why did Vancouver presale launches hit zero in 2025? A combination of factors: construction costs that made projects uneconomical at current sale prices, softened investor demand, and an inability to hit the 60–70% presale thresholds lenders require before advancing construction financing. When the math doesn't work, developers wait rather than launch at a loss.

How does the launch drought affect buyers completing in 2026? Buyers completing now benefit from developer incentive programs aimed at clearing 2022–2023 launch inventory. This is actually a good time to negotiate favourable terms on completions. The drought primarily affects supply in 2027–2029.

Will developers restart launches when rates drop? Partially. Fixed mortgage rates are driven more by bond yields than the BoC policy rate, and those haven't dropped meaningfully despite three consecutive BoC holds. Developers are also watching construction cost trajectories. A relaunch cycle likely begins in late 2026 or 2027 — but completions from those launches won't arrive until 2029 or 2030.

What's the difference between housing starts being up and presale launches hitting zero? February 2026 housing starts were up 4.5% — but that reflects projects that broke ground after hitting presale thresholds from 2022–2023 launches. Starts and launches are separated by a 12–24 month gap. Strong starts today don't contradict zero launches in 2025.

Is this specific to Vancouver or a national trend? CMHC's Spring 2026 data confirms Toronto is showing the same pattern. Vancouver presale launches hit zero in multiple months of 2025; Toronto's CMHC Spring 2026 report confirms a parallel collapse. The national starts forecast (decline through 2028) reflects this broad pullback.

What should a first-time presale buyer do right now? Work with a realtor who has direct access to developer pricing before public launch. The best units in any project are allocated in the VIP phase — and most buyers never see that phase. For a broader entry point on how presale works, see our [complete guide for first-time presale buyers in Vancouver](/first-time-buyer-presale-vancouver-complete-guide-2026).

Related: [CMHC's condo pipeline is shrinking — what it means for presale buyers](/cmhc-2026-condo-pipeline-shrinking-presale-supply-risk) | [Vancouver presale shadow inventory and completion risk in 2026](/vancouver-presale-shadow-inventory-completion-risk-2026) | [Vancouver spring 2026 presale inventory surge and the buyer window](/vancouver-spring-2026-presale-inventory-surge-buyer-window)