Vancouver's Record Unsold Condo Inventory at Completion — What CMHC's Spring 2026 Report Means for Presale Buyers

Quick Answer: CMHC's Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report confirmed Vancouver has the highest level of unsold condominium inventory at completion in Canada. Record completions in 2025 met weak demand, leaving developers holding finished units they can't sell — and creating a buyer's window that may not last. Here's what it means if you're buying presale or looking at completed condos right now.

Key Facts

• CMHC Spring 2026 report: Vancouver recorded the highest level of unsold condo inventory at completion among Canada's major housing markets

• Metro Vancouver saw a record number of housing completions in 2025, according to CMHC data released this week

• Nationally, unsold inventory at completion climbed to record levels across Canada's seven largest markets — with Toronto and Vancouver hit hardest

• BC home sales dropped 9.7% in February 2026 compared to the same period last year, per BCREA

• CMHC projects national housing starts will decline from 2026 to 2028, driven by weak presales, elevated construction costs, and developers postponing projects

• The lowest 5-year fixed mortgage rate available is currently around 3.69%, with the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25%

• Presale absorption has been the weakest in years — some new projects are hitting less than 20% sold at launch

What CMHC's Spring 2026 Report Actually Said

CMHC released its Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report earlier this month, covering 2025's market performance and projecting through 2028. The headline numbers look contradictory at first glance: housing completions surged in 2025, including record completions in Vancouver. More units than ever got built. That sounds like good news.

Except many of those units didn't sell.

The report flagged rising unsold inventory at completion as a key concern, noting that condo presales had "collapsed" in major markets. Developers who broke ground during the 2022–2023 presale boom have been delivering units into a 2025–2026 market that has fundamentally shifted. Investors who bought presale during the peak are now completing into properties worth less than they paid — in some cases declining to close, leaving developers with inventory they must sell retail.

Vancouver is the worst-positioned major city in Canada on this measure.

Why Vancouver Is in This Position

Three factors converged to create Metro Vancouver's unsold inventory problem:

1. A presale boom in a low-rate environment. Developers launched and sold projects aggressively in 2021–2022 when rates were near zero and investor demand was intense. Many of those buildings are now completing.

2. Investor pullback. The investor cohort that once absorbed a significant share of presale condos has retreated. With rents falling in Metro Vancouver and carrying costs up, the buy-to-rent math no longer pencils. Investors are sitting on the sidelines or exiting. Some are declining to close on completions they bought in better times.

3. Slow end-user sales. End-user buyers — people who actually want to live in the unit — haven't backfilled the gap left by investors. Tariff uncertainty, job market anxiety, and years of stretched affordability have made buyers cautious.

The result: buildings are completing with dozens of unsold units. Developers are holding inventory on their balance sheets and paying carrying costs on finished product. That's expensive. That's pressure. That's negotiating leverage for buyers.

What This Means If You're Buying a Completed Condo

If you're in the market for a completed condo today, you're operating in the most developer-motivated environment since 2009. A unit that's sitting unsold in a completed building is a developer's worst position — they're paying strata fees, property taxes, and financing costs on dead inventory every single month.

What you can negotiate on completed presale inventory:

• Price reductions — in completed buildings with high unsold inventory, developers have moved headline prices on upper-floor and hard-to-sell unit types

• Assignment of incentives — if the developer originally offered early buyers upgrades or parking, ask whether those follow the unit on a re-sale

• Flexible closing timelines — developers will often work with buyers on possession dates to match your existing lease or sale timeline

• GST — verify whether the developer has already built GST into their pricing or if it's added on top; in a soft market, some absorb this as a de facto discount

What This Means If You're Buying Presale

Counterintuitively, the unsold inventory problem at completion is actually a medium-term argument for presale buying.

Here's the logic: CMHC is projecting housing starts will decline from 2026 through 2028 because developers can't hit presale thresholds to secure construction financing. Fewer projects starting now means less supply completing in 2028 and beyond. The Vancouver that has too many condos completing today is setting up for another supply shortage in 3–4 years.

If you're buying presale in 2026 on a project with a 2028 or 2029 completion, you're completing into a market where developer caution today is actively constraining future supply. That's a different risk profile than completing into 2026's glut.

Additionally, the developers who are launching new projects right now — into this soft market — are the ones with the most motivated pricing and incentive structures. They need presales to secure financing, period. The leverage belongs to the buyer.

For more on how to evaluate a specific presale project's financial health before committing, see [Vancouver's Presale Shadow Inventory Problem](./vancouver-presale-shadow-inventory-completion-risk-2026.md) and [Developer Insolvency and Presale Buyer Rights in BC](./bc-developer-insolvency-presale-buyer-rights-2026.md).

The Supply Crunch Behind the Glut

The apparent contradiction in the Vancouver market right now: too many units completing, but fewer projects launching. Both can be true simultaneously, and both are.

2025 delivered a record pipeline of completions from projects that started in the boom years. The presale market for new launches, however, has been close to frozen. Projects that haven't hit their financing thresholds have been delayed, shelved, or quietly cancelled. The CBC recently reported that economists with the builders' association are warning that new home construction numbers could fall materially in BC this year.

What this means for supply in 2028–2030: there won't be much of it. The units completing now represent the tail end of a construction cycle. What comes next is shaped by today's presale activity — which is near its weakest level in years.

Buyers who understand this dynamic are the ones positioned to act well in 2026. For a full breakdown of how 2026's buyer window compares to previous market cycles, see [Vancouver's Spring 2026 Buyer Window](./vancouver-spring-2026-presale-buying-window.md).

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Vancouver have the highest unsold condo inventory at completion in Canada?

Vancouver's presale market saw high investor participation during 2021–2022. Many of those investors are now declining to close on completions or selling completed units they bought as investments — leaving developers with re-acquired inventory in a softer market.

Should I buy a completed unsold presale condo or a fresh presale?

Both have merit in 2026. A completed unit gives you certainty (you can see what you're buying, there's no construction risk, and you move in now). A fresh presale at motivated developer pricing may offer more upside if you're timing toward a 2028–2029 completion when supply is projected to be tighter.

Are developers actually willing to negotiate on completed unsold inventory?

Yes — more than at any time since the post-2008 period. Developers holding finished inventory are paying carrying costs every month. That's real financial pressure that creates real negotiating room, especially on upper-floor units, parking, and closing timelines.

Does the CMHC Spring 2026 report mean Vancouver prices will fall further?

The report flags unsold inventory as a headwind for prices in the short term. However, it also projects starts declining through 2028, which constrains future supply. The near-term trajectory is soft; the medium-term supply picture is tightening again.

What is the current mortgage rate environment for condo buyers in Vancouver?

The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% (prime rate 4.45%). The lowest 5-year fixed rates are around 3.69% as of mid-March 2026. Variable rates track the BoC policy rate and are unlikely to change materially in 2026 unless trade conditions deteriorate significantly.

Where can I see which projects have unsold completed inventory?

An experienced presale specialist can pull this data. Alternatively, checking MLS listings for new buildings with multiple identical floor plan listings from the same developer is a signal of developer-held inventory.